Election eyes on seat of Adelaide
Labor is nervously awaiting the voters’ verdict in its South Australian seats, with the electorates of Hindmarsh and Adelaide considered to be the most vulnerable in tomorrow’s federal election.
However, as one political scientist has pointed out, other Labor seats could fall to the Liberals if the “swing is on”.
Internal Labor polling for the western suburbs seat of Hindmarsh has been moving minutely around a pivot of 50/50, with pessimism growing this week among some Labor insiders.
On the positive side, sitting member Steve Georganas is understood to have made thousands of personal calls to undecided voters. He’s also counting on big support in the Greek community, many of whom are understood to refuse to participate in phone polling and therefore might be going undetected by pollsters.
The seat of Adelaide, held by minister Kate Ellis, is also worrying Labor, with a least one Labor campaigner not expecting a result in the traditional swing seat on Saturday night.
Flinders University political scientist Haydon Manning said he wouldn’t be surprised if Labor lost up to four of the six seats it holds in South Australia.
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“While the consensus is that little will change in South Australian excepting perhaps Hindmarsh going to the Liberals, we need to keep in mind that about 10% of voters say they make up their minds on polling day,” Manning said. “Momentum has been with Abbott during the last 10 days, so some further Labor losses would not surprise.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor lost Hindmarsh, Adelaide, Makin and Wakefield, or a mix of any of those. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me.
Nationally, Manning predicts the Coalition will pick up around 15 seats and form government.
University of Adelaide politics professor Clem Macintyre said Hindmarsh was the seat most likely to change hands.
“At the 2010 election, while there was a swing away from the Labor government, there was in fact a swing to Labor in South Australia,” he said.
“This means that the Labor seats now have a fairly healthy margin and the most vulnerable seat, Hindmarsh has a buffer of just over 6%. All the polls suggest that there will be a swing away from Labor across the nation and that at this election that swing will be seen in South Australia.
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“I expect that this election will leave all of the Liberal held seats on much safer margins and the margins in the Labor held seats to be reduced. Hindmarsh may well have not quite enough of a buffer to withstand the swing and so Hindmarsh is the seat most likely South Australian seat to change hands.”
Nationally, he’s predicting a big victory for the Coalition, 90 seats to 56, with three seats held by others.
In the Senate, Macintyre expected three or four cross-benchers to hold the balance of power.
Liberal Party State Director Geoffrey Greene said voters were keen to have their say.
“I’m hearing from the pre-poll booths that there’s been plenty of people going in early,” Greene said.
“The mood seems to be that they are very eager to vote.”
ALP state secretary Reggie Martin conceded that there would be close results in Labor-held seats in South Australia.
“But we expect the hard work of our MPs over the past three years will keep them in good stead,” Martin told InDaily.
Australian Electoral Office officials said pre-poll voting was up more than 20 per cent on previous elections.
Divisional Returning Officer for Barker in the State’s south east, Jim Leane, said he expected 5000 pre-poll votes in Mount Gambier alone, Jim Leane, discussed the numbers with the Mornings program.
“They can’t get to a polling place on polling day or they’re going to be travelling or they’re going to be working. The service is offered to allow them to vote,” he said.
Leane told ABC local radio the pre-poll voting centre located in Mount Gambier is the biggest in the Barker electorate.
“We’re expecting somewhere close to 5000 (pre-poll votes) being cast, whereas last time it was around the 4000 mark.”
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