By the stats: weekly wrap of SA economic data
There were four key pieces of data over the past seven days – the gloomy unemployment figures for South Australia, a fall in new home building, crop figures, and a less gloomy, but ultimately concerning, survey of business conditions and confidence.
Check Business Insight every Thursday for a convenient round-up of the state’s economic data.
Unemployment: males lead the slump
The headline unemployment figure for South Australia has been well-discussed: the ABS stats for June show the state’s unemployment rate climbing to 8.2 per cent, its highest level since February 2000.
The seasonally adjusted rate for June jumped 0.6 per cent compared May, and follows a significant spike the previous month. The more stable trend rate is also heading upwards.
SA has the highest unemployment rate in Australia: the next-worst performer is Tasmania at 6.5 per cent, but that improved from 7.0 in May.
Drilling down, it is male unemployment that dented South Australia’s figures in June.
The jobless rate for men spiked from 7.0 per cent in May to 9.2 per cent in June. The unemployment rate for women actually fell, from 8.2 per cent to 7 per cent, bearing in mind that there are far more men than women in the labour force.
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A look at the figures over the past 12 months also tells a concerning story.
According to analysis by the South Australian Centre for Economic Studies (SACES), the number of South Australians in full-time employment dropped by 9,000 from June 2014 to June 2015.
Overall, the number employed increased by 2,400, while the participation rate increased marginally.
In other words, more of us are trying to find jobs, and more of us are in part-time and casual employment.
Business confidence
The NAB monthly business survey for June shows an improvement in confidence and conditions across the country.
South Australia was no different, with trend business confidence increasing to its highest level since late 2014 (although this came before the Greek crisis started impacting world markets, and before the turmoil in the Chinese stock market).
NAB state general manager of business, Tom Renda, said lower interest rates and a lower dollar seemed to be having a positive effect “while the renewed optimism could be attributed to business-friendly initiatives in both state and federal budgets”.
“There was a notable jump in business conditions in June, which suggests the optimism might translate into stronger business activity and demand for labour.”
However, as the two graphs from the survey (below) show, SA, as with its unemployment stats, is trending well below the national average – and Tasmania – in both business confidence and conditions.
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New home building slides
New home building in South Australia dropped in the March 2015 quarter after a surge in the previous quarter, according to ABS data released this week.
The picture in non-residential building was similar, with the total value of work done during the quarter also plummeting – from $607 million in the December quarter to $477 miillion in March.
The Housing Industry Association has raised concern about the numbers, which show new home building dropped to its lowest level since mid-2013.
The HIA says there was a spike in multi-unit commencements in the December quarter – when that disappeared in March, the overall numbers dropped.
“On a more positive note, the level of detached house commencements held steady at a level just above 2000 in the quarter, which is consistent with the level recorded over the last year and a half,” said HIA executive director Wayne Matthew.
Crop estimated at 6.9 million tonnes
The South Australian grain crop for this year is estimated to come in at 6.9 million tonnes, slightly down on last year.
The latest Crop and Pasture Report, released today by Primary Industries and Regions SA (PIRSA), finds the estimated farm gate value of the crop will be around $1.7 billion, with an estimated export value of $2.4 billion.
PIRSA grains account manager Dave Lewis said yield was dependent on rainfall over the next six to eight months.
Lower rainfall in in some areas meant some farmers were unable to complete seeding, particularly in the Upper South East.
To read the full report, go here.
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