Socceroos set to return to the world’s top 50
Mark next Tuesday, 12 April, in your diary.
That’s the day when we’ll know who the Socceroos will face in the next round of World Cup qualifiers, a round which offers passage to Russia 2018.
All the matches played until now have reduced the field of Asian teams from 46 to 12. Those who have made it will be drawn into two groups of six and in each group the top two will reach the World Cup finals.
The teams that finish third stay alive but only one of them can make it to Russia. They’ll have to face each other and then the winner advances to a sudden death playoff against the country that finishes fourth in CONCACAF, the confederation that covers North & Central America and the Caribbean.
Last week, and two months ago, I talked about the importance of FIFA rankings in the process of deciding seedings for the draw on 12 April. Fortunately Australia got the two things it needed to maximise its position.
One was in the Socceroos’ hands – victory over Jordan. But Saudi Arabia would still have been seeded higher than Australia if it defeated United Arab Emirates a few hours later; the match ended in a draw.
The rankings that will inform the seedings for the 12 April draw will be released on Thursday.
They will confirm two things. Firstly, though it doesn’t affect World Cup qualifiers in Asia, Australia will return to the world’s top 50 for the first time since August 2013. The team is currently ranked 67th (and even dropped below 100 in late 2014) but the Socceroos’ recent good form has helped them get back into a more respectable position.
More importantly, the remaining teams in Asia’s World Cup qualifiers will be ranked in this order: 1 Iran, 2 Australia, 3 South Korea, 4 Japan, 5 Saudi Arabia, 6 Uzbekistan, 7 UAE, 8 China, 9 Qatar, 10 Iraq, 11 Syria, 12 Thailand.
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Each group in the next phase of Asian qualifying will have one of the first two teams, one of the next two and so on. So the Socceroos could get South Korea or Japan but not both. Similarly they might play Saudi Arabia or Uzbekistan but not both. The only country they can’t draw is Iran which, like Australia, will be a top seed.
And that’s a good start. Iran, South Korea and Japan are our strongest rivals and having just one of them in our group (when it could so easily have been two) is an advantage.
But could the draw deliver even more luck for Australia?
History shows us that the Socceroos have struggled in qualifiers in Western Asia while they’ve done much better elsewhere in our confederation.
[For this column, “Western Asia” is west or south of Iran. It doesn’t include any countries that end in “stan”.]
Since joining the Asian Football Confederation on 1 January 2006, Australia has played 14 matches in the western part which were either World Cup or Asian Cup qualifiers. Our record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses.
At first glance that looks ok but delve deeper and it’s less glowing. Two of those wins were quite fortunate.
Indeed, while Mark Bresciano’s injury time winner in Bahrain in a 2008 World Cup qualifier had me jumping out of my seat, I remember that match as one of the sport’s great heists. The home team dominated but couldn’t score and, almost with the game’s last kick, Bresh cashed in on an opponent’s error.
Australia’s 2-1 win over Iraq (in Qatar) in 2012 wasn’t much more convincing. The Socceroos were behind in the closing stages before late goals to Tim Cahill and Archie Thompson saved the day.
That win over Iraq was also the Socceroos’ only victory in their last five qualifiers in Western Asia. Those matches have seen two losses to Jordan and one to Oman, both teams that haven’t been good enough to reach the next round.
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In the rest of Asia (since 2006), Australia has played nine qualifiers away from home for a record of: 5 wins, 4 draws and no losses.
And that includes two games in Japan and trips to China, Uzbekistan and Thailand (all countries that are still in the race for Russia 2018). Remarkable.
What is it that makes Western Asia so much harder than the rest of the continent? Is it oppressive heat? Is it that the Socceroos find those teams’ style of play more difficult? Or is it a combination of those and other factors?
We may need to find the answer soon because the next round of qualifiers could deliver up to four Western Asian opponents.
Conversely, the draw could place just one team from that part of the world in our group.
Firstly, Australia gets either South Korea or Japan. It’s a 50/50. The Koreans were more impressive in the Asian Cup but by the time these qualifiers begin that will be old news. Whichever one we get will be tough.
In the next pairing, the Socceroos will draw Saudi Arabia (Western Asia) or Uzbekistan. The Uzbeks have outperformed the Saudis in recent years and should be the tougher opponent. But in three meetings they haven’t troubled Australia. The Saudis haven’t either but, again, playing in Western Asia has proved to be difficult.
The next two are UAE (Western Asia) and China. If you want an easy-to-point-to example of the FIFA rankings’ shortcomings, it’s that these two teams are close together. The Emiratis are much better and China, frankly, was lucky to get this far. Playing UAE would mean seeing the super skills of their star Omar Abdulrahman… but they will be deployed against us.
One of Qatar or Iraq will be in Australia’s group, a case of one Western Asian nation or another. Qatar is more consistent; the Iraqi’s best is better. But unfortunately they face a few challenges that aren’t problems for most other teams. They include having to play home games in another country – Iran (how times have changed).
That leaves the lowest seeds, Thailand and Syria. Australia has faced the Thais before and they were no pushovers. The Syrians have surprised thus far but, like Iraq, they have to play their home games elsewhere (Oman).
The ideal group for the Socceroos would be drawing South Korea/Japan, Uzbekistan, China, Qatar and Thailand.
The worst scenario is getting South Korea/Japan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq and Syria.
A few explanations: I can’t split the Japanese and the Koreans; Iraq has been a more difficult opponent in recent years than Qatar; and while the Thais may be better than Syria, we’re more familiar with them.
Even though the draw is next week, these matches won’t begin until September and will continue until September of next year.
Paul Marcuccitti is a co-presenter of 5RTI’s Soccer on 531 program which can be heard from 10am on Saturdays. His regular soccer column, Manton St Tales, is published in InDaily on Mondays.
