Leaders eye election finish line in final-day sprint
Anthony Albanese has started the final day of campaigning with another psychological boost from the polls, as both leaders embark on a last-minute blitz of marginal seats on Friday.
The Australian Financial Review‘s last poll showed the prime minister was on track to form a minority Labor government, and could form a majority.
The Freshwater Strategy poll found Labor was leading the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis by 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent.
It was a 1.5-point swing towards the ALP in a fortnight and a 2.5-point swing since the campaign began, the AFR reported, and would most likely be enough for Labor to form government.
Overall, however, it was a 0.6 percentage point swing against Labor since the last election.
That would reduce Labor’s seats from 78 to a “bare majority” of 76, while the Coalition would gain two seats to 59, said the AFR.
But Coalition leader Peter Dutton has not given up, and is hoping for an election win to replicate Scott Morrison’s “miracle” in 2019 when he defied the polls and public opinion.
Dutton told supporters on Thursday night not to believe what they were reading about the Coalition’s chances.
Albanese and Dutton have just one more day to convince voters they should lead the nation before official election day on Saturday.
The prime minister and opposition leader will embark on a last-minute blitz of marginal seats across Australia on Friday.
Having already visited Western Australia and South Australia, Albanese will look to round off the remaining four states as part of his six-state whistle-stop tour in the election’s last days.
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Meanwhile, Dutton is hoping to gain ground in battleground electorates during his sweep of 28 marginal seats for the frenetic final week.
The opposition leader will be out to defy history and the polls to become the 32nd prime minister, with no party having formed government after just one term in opposition since 1931.
The Coalition has also been trailing in national opinion polls, while a seat-by-seat poll released on Thursday by YouGov revealed the opposition could sink to its lowest seat percentage since the 1940s.
While some campaign techniques have stayed the same, the 2025 election has been defined by a shift of party leaders appearing on podcasts, with new media and online influencers having a large role.
Hannah Ferguson, Cheek Media Co chief executive and co-host of the Big Small Talk podcast, said 2025 was the first election where political parties realised the influence of large online audiences, which had been untapped.
“This is the first time politicians have realised the power of us,” she told AAP.
“An influencer has a level of engagement where they are talking politics and have a rapport with a dedicated audience who like and trust them.”
Albanese has made several podcast appearances throughout the year, including with Abbie Chatfield and the Betoota Advocate, while Dutton has been on podcasts with businessman Mark Bouris and Olympian Sam Fricker.
Ferguson said podcast appearances were a way to tap into previously unreachable audiences for political candidates.
“It’s easy to say Generation Z listen blatantly to information, but it’s more complex than that. The politicians who bother to show up want to prove they want different voters,” she said.
“(Audiences) feel like they’re opting into receiving communications.”
The influence of online creators and podcasters has become even more powerful during the traditional media blackout period for election advertising on TV and radio, with online measures not affected.
A day out from polling day, Ferguson said the prime minister had made better use of appealing to voters through podcasts and online platforms than his opponent.
“He has followed suit with the strengths of Greens and teals with engaging in different demographics and new media, and reaching voters he would have lost,” she said.
Dutton digs in
Dutton has sown doubt over the accuracy of disastrous opinion polls, as he remains bullish about his election chances.
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Fresh figures from YouGov show Albanese on track to secure a clear majority at Saturday’s election, while the opposition leader could oversee the coalition’s worst result in 80 years.
It’s a startling decline from before the campaign in February, when polls put Dutton on track to win government.
Still, he found plenty of supporters at an agricultural festival near Launceston on Thursday.
“There’s no doubt in my mind that we can (win),” Dutton said as he toured stalls advertising farming equipment, irrigation set-ups and automatic milkers.
After a challenging few weeks, the man vying to be prime minister appeared more relaxed surrounded by his base and supported by Tasmania’s Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
It also allowed Dutton to show off his softer side, as he played with toy trucks with some up-and-coming young farmers.
Earlier in the day in Brisbane, he urged voters not to concentrate on the events of the past five weeks, but to think about how their lives had gotten worse under the Albanese administration.
“This election really is a referendum, not about the election campaign, but about the last three years of government,” Dutton told reporters.
Despite cost-of-living pressures rising under Labor, voters have increased their support for the government since the 2022 election, according to YouGov.
Its modelling points to an 84-seat win for the government, well above the 76 needed for an outright majority.
Under this scenario, the coalition will drop to 47 seats: a net loss of 11.
“We should have called out Labor’s lies earlier on,” Dutton said when asked whether he would have done anything differently on the campaign.
“When you have a look at what this government has done; the hurt, the personal, family hurt that the Albanese government has delivered on Australia is without precedent.”
If the party does go backwards, even Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson might not be safe.
He was back on home turf on Thursday morning to attend a Salvation Army Red Shield Appeal at an RSL club in the suburb of Bray Park.
Speculation about Dutton’s demise in Dickson has accompanied every election since he first won the seat in 2001, but he has always managed to hold onto the marginal electorate.
This time, he faces a challenge from Climate 200-backed independent Ellie Smith, who joins the race with Labor’s Ali France, a candidate who has whittled the Liberals’ margin down to 1.7 per cent over two elections.
But Dutton claims his presence in his electorate 48 hours before polling day isn’t an indication that he’s concerned about losing his seat.
As chair of the Salvos’ district appeal, he attended the charity drive every year, clearing whatever was on his schedule to help raise money for homelessness, family violence and addiction services, he said.
The coalition also released its policy costings on Thursday, touting a $40 billion reduction in gross debt over four years compared to under Labor.
