Playing the numbers game for the Senate
The title fight for Senate positions is about as riveting as watching paint dry in winter but SA’s political fist fight could go all the way, writes Mike Smithson.
In most federal elections the title fight for Senate positions is about as riveting as watching paint dry in winter.
But South Australia’s political fist fight on May 3 is shaping up as one which could go all the way, with the six positions anything but an early round knockout.
The Senate ballot is usually more complicated than a moon landing, often with a large field of candidates across a ballot paper so wide that in makes unfurling a toilet roll appear manageable.
In SA there are 40 individuals who’ve nominated.
In the Australian Constitution, each state is allocated 12 senators to act as watchdogs over the parliament, basically a house of review.
In other words, a second set of eyes on legislation passed up from the House of Representatives and vice versa.
In the past, mathematicians rivalling Einstein have worked out complex preference deals between major and minor players which, on occasions, allow unknown candidates with relatively few first preference votes to win a seat.
That’s been largely ironed out with voters marking each box from one to six in order of their preferred party above the line or for the more committed voter, a preferential vote from one to 12 below the line.
Preferences are essential for those candidates outside the main party machines.
To win a seat they need a 14 per cent quota which equates to about 160,000 votes.
Former SA showman Nick Xenophon is a perfect example of playing the numbers game to win an unlikely Upper House seat here and then successfully moving onto the Senate in 2007.
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His luck with the Centre Alliance Party ran out in 2022, although Rebekha Sharkie held her House of Representatives seat of Mayo.
So, they’re the mechanics.
Unless there’s a double dissolution, where all Senate seats are thrown open for re-election, only half of those sitting on the red benches are required to put their heads on the chopping block every three years.
Of our 12, sitting Liberals Alex Antic, Anne Ruston and David Fawcett go to the polls this time around, and I’ll return to that running order which is intriguing.
On Labor’s ticket it’s time for Karen Grogan and Marielle Smith to face voters.
While firebrand Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young is also going around again.
You may have noticed names like Penny Wong, Don Farrell, Barbara Pocock and Kerryn Liddle missing from the list, because they all have another three years to sit back and soak up the luxuries of a six-year term.
Either rightly or wrongly, it’s how high you are listed on the party’s running ticket that virtually guarantees another term.
Top spot is a shoo-in as is second position for Labor or the Liberals, but third ranking or lower usually means you just win or just lose out, or don’t stand a chance of the required quota.
Now is the time to say “sick ‘em Rex.”
Former Xenophon stalwart Rex Patrick is an obvious wild card in this half-Senate election.
He’s now part of the Tasmanian-based Lambie Network Party which wants to double its representation to two.
Patrick is an outspoken critic of the $368 billion AUKUS program, a public policy crusader and already knows the ropes in Canberra.
He’s gunning for David Fawcett’s precarious Liberal held spot.
If current polls are correct the Liberals are falling behind Labor on a consistent basis.
That trend could also see a fall in Senate support, so former army chopper pilot and long-standing Senator Fawcett could be the casualty of this war.
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Patrick and his boss, Jacqui Lambie, both see it ripe for the picking.
“I’m confident because my votes come from a mix of sources,” Patrick says.
“Voters who are disillusioned with the major parties, or in the past voted for Nick Xenophon need to go somewhere.”
He and many others see a strong nationwide Lambie brand recognition which will work well for an independent SA voice in the Senate.
But One Nation’s Jennifer Game, mother of legislative councillor Sarah Game, would claim the same notoriety via Pauline Hanson’s brand.
She says there is a clear pathway for her to win that sixth seat.
“I want voters to elect me on what best represents the kind of society they want for now and in the future,” she said.
“One Nation is the fastest growing political party in SA.
“I don’t need the polls to tell me that, although they do.”
Some might rightly argue the smaller the party, the smaller the problems.
Cast our minds back six years, when former Adelaide City Councillor Antic told me he was chucking in his prominent legal profession for a tilt at the Senate in 2019.
He didn’t really fancy his chances from third spot on the Liberal ticket, but I did.
My thought was that he’d just get over the line rather than fall short.
Whether a lucky guess or from experienced sniffing of the political wind, it proved to be correct.
I still remind Antic that he should have trusted my judgement rather than his own rookie uncertainty.
From third spot on the ticket, the conservative powerbroker has now leapfrogged moderate Ruston into the prestigious top spot.
That itself has created division and fractures within Liberal factions.
Fawcett is probably the most moderate voice of reason on the Liberal ticket, but that could cost him dearly if his party’s vote crumbles.
I’m not as bullish about Patrick’s senate endorsement, but in volatile times he’s an experienced hand and already has a South Australian profile which few re-entering the game can dream of.
Mike Smithson is weekend presenter and political analyst for 7NEWS Adelaide.
